Shipping costs are skyrocketing. Excellent, long article from Royal, Oakland.

...3 Takeaways for Green Coffee Buyers and Roasters

From our cofounder, Bob Fulmer.

* The cost of freight is built into cost of green. Right now rates seem to have climbed at least 10 cents per pound. 20 cent conversions are now 30 cents, which is a new high, so coffee will cost a bit more regardless of producer selling prices.

* Many ETA dates are being updated with arrivals two to four weeks later than expected. This is bound to upset roasters caught short. The options of replacement to cover any gaps in coverage might be limited, and the coffee available on the spot might not be the same as the delayed arrivals. They need to embrace flexibility. This past year has probably been good practice.

* Potentially the most disappointing effect of long delays will be the impact to coffee quality. We have already received Sumatra that have aged prematurely. GrainPro bags can offer only so much protection. Expect some roaster disappointment.

Good read is here: https://royalcoffee.com/what-coffee-roa ... sts-ahead/

Good info Dave. I've been curious about this myself as supply chain issues are rampant right now. Funny thing though...I picked up today from CTI in NJ...to see the sheer amount of coffee in this building and adjacent spaces...staggering does not describe it. And I thought I had been a to a large coffee warehouse previously. It looked like there was enough coffee in there for 100 years. Not the case obviously.

It is still interesting how Specialty most likely will have supply challenges...especially once the post COVID wave of reopenings happen. Can't come soon enough. I'll be curious to see what the forward shipment spot price of a regular coffee that I keep in my line costs when it comes in a month or so... it always varies a bit of course.

If I had to guess from a business perspective...importers may start to widen the spread between spot and forward contract coffee. It would allow them to keep their regular more supportive customers happy(ish) while absorbing some of the new costs by raising spot price. It's nice to have importers that are very transparent about markup too. Though I don't believe that should or needs to be the norm. It does make it easier to buy from them though.

Of course this will add to the inflation that is already happening out there, but applied to the price of finished coffee product. Another challenge that might await is finding out what the ceiling really is for consumers with regards to specialty coffee. And if quality degrades at the same time it will put pressure on businesses. Well see...

On another note..but still the subject of green coffee. I wish consumers really understood that a lot of coffee is hand picked. When I go to a warehouse, as a lot of you know too...to see that much coffee and equate it to the amount of time and manual labor that goes into hand picking all those cherries... so we can enjoy our daily ritual...well...it's humbling and I wish more folks were aware of this. It would really change things...or maybe not ;(

Timely article...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us- ... lation.amp

Another article from this morning's NY Times which reports on the issue of snarled international shipping and the resulting price increases in transported goods.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/busi ... =url-share

Another good read...thanks Dave

I am convinced it's all the cat toys I am buying that is causing this. Sorry coffee lovers.

Cupped with a Congo greens wholesaler yesterday, Mighty Peace Coffee. Two very good coffees on the table. Asked for price.

He said their challenges were doubled. Greens have to go to Burundi or Rwanda and be paired with other greens headed to the U.S. and trucked out to port in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or Mombasa, Kenya. Logistical nightmare.