Coffee harvest 2022

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Marcelnl
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#1: Post by Marcelnl »

Can someone help me understand how we should interpret this IMO conflicting information?

(was looking up when new crop is expected but only found links to new harvest roasters using google, which has become a useless piece of marketing nonsense lately)
I'm baffled to be honest.
https://www.gov.br/en/government-of-bra ... 22-harvest
Brazilian Coffee production is expected to reach 55.7 million bags in the 2022 harvest. The estimate, if confirmed, represents an increase of 16.8% compared to production in 2021.
For almost 2 centuries, Brazil has been the largest coffee producer and exporter in the world, with a share of 32% in worldwide production and 23% in exports in 2020. In 2021 alone, Brazil exported about 42.4 million 60-kilo bags of green coffee, with a revenue of US$6.4 billion.
(production in 2020 was 3.5 bilion kilo, which is 58M bags, 2016 was 48M bags)

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee
Arabica coffee futures on ICE were trading around $2.4, remaining close to its highest since February 25th, amid a stronger real and concerns over tight supplies. Dealers said the market remains well supported by a limited flow from Brazil and Central America, with the harvest in top grower Brazil lagging its historical average. Meanwhile, the Colombian Coffee Growers' Federation reported on May 5th that Colombian April coffee exports slipped 18% y/y to 845,000 bags. At the same time, the US Department of Agriculture projected the Colombian 2022/23 coffee crop at 13 million bags, stable from 2021/22.
LMWDP #483

EthanL

#2: Post by EthanL »

The first data is a prediction of full year production comparing 2022 to 2021, that is not a reality.

The second though, is the data in reality. Another outlet siting the same information, https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/brazils ... ars-report
"June 2 (Reuters) - Brazilian farmers harvested around 18% of the 2022 coffee crop by May 31, a slower harvest pace compared to last year and also behind the historical average for this time of the year, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday.

Last year, farmers had harvested 20% of the coffee fields by this time. The five-year average for the period is 23%, Safras said, adding that field work should speed up in coming days due to dry weather over the Brazilian coffee belt, which favors harvesting."
So probably we are not having a great year of coffee harvest :?

PS. looking at the articles again, the 16.8% increase in the first one is 2022 production over 2021 production; while, the second article is saying the harvesting is slower in Brazil this year (human factor) rather than production is lower, hopefully good news is on the way :)