For anyone who is curious, here are the results of my initial investigations into the temperature profile of a brass-sleeve style manual lever machine: Brew Temperature Measurements on a Caferina (similar to brass sleeve Pavonis)

For those who want the super-short version: Used the way I normally do it, the basic profile tended to involve about 10s of preinfusion at around 187F, followed by a rise up to 202-203F or so, and then a decline starting after 30s or so of pulling. So those who pull faster shots will get a profile that is basically rising, while those who grind tighter and pull slower will see a bit of a hump. Nothing I could do would get a steadily declining profile, however.