by Jeff on Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:08 am
That appears to be similar to Figure 8.4 of Illy, Viana, and Liverani, Espresso Coffee: The Science of Quality, Second Edition, 2005, who also reference Petracco, 1989, where the axes are Beverage Volume (ml) along the bottom and Cumulative Caffeine Weight (mg) along the side.
25 ml ~ 0.85 fl.oz
40 ml ~ 1.35 fl.oz.
So if the coffee and extraction parameters are similar, this suggests that the 40 ml shot has perhaps 20% more caffeine than the 25 ml shot.
Pulling that to 4 fl.oz. (~120 ml) looks like it is getting you into the saturation point. I would guess from the data presented that you're not seeing a lot more caffeine extracted than at 40 ml. (The quadratic model they fit has long since turned south.)