180degrees wrote: ... After the intial upstroke there's plenty of air caught inside the cylinder, partly due to the inflow of water going down the side walls of the cylinder, across the face of the puck and rising with the air trapped on top. ...
Yes, some air remains in the cylinder.
Here's my understanding of the dynamic. It assumes,
arguendo, that all seals are sealing 100%.
UPSTROKE
When the piston has risen to where its face (lower seal) is above the water inlet, much of the air inside the cylinder gets displaced by the inrush of water-under-boiler-pressure; the displaced air is forced out through the coffee in the filter, which is very porous at that point. Until the piston's downstroke closes the inlet, the boiler and cylinder form a continuum, and any air that does not get forced out of the cylinder gets mixed with the incoming water and compressed a little by boiler pressure. The pressure in the continuum will drop as some pressurized steam escapes through the filter, at least until the puck becomes wet and swells and effectively slows or even blocks egress. How much or how little pressure is in the chamber will depend on the p-stat setting and whether the heating element has kicked back on during the pull; other ancillary factors such as grind and dose and freshness and basket geometry will determine how much can be pushed through the coffee-in-filter by boiler pressure alone.
DOWNSTROKE
The downstroke compresses any air remaining in the cylinder as its contents are pushed through the coffee.
Some air remains above the saturated puck. The piston is in its lowest position and the bottom seal traps the air between the puck and the bottom of the seal. Residual pressure from the piston's compression may cause bubbling at the spouts (or on the bottom of the filter, if naked PF), the only egress . A small amount of air remains above the puck nonetheless; how much will depend on how full the basket is and on how much or how little air was forced out of the cylinder by boiler pressure during the upstroke.
SECOND UPSTROKE
When the piston rises, a slight vacuum is created. Whether the vacuum is sufficient to rupture the puck, and the severity of such rupture if it should occur, will depend on the amount of air that remains trapped above the puck, on the speed/force of the upstroke, and on the degree to which that trapped air remains compressed or has reached equilibrium with the atmospheric pressure on the outside of the filter.
PRACTICAL HYPOTHESIS
An overdosed heavily compacted basket is more likely to be ruptured by a second upstroke than a moderately dosed lightly tamped basket because the latter has a greater cushion of (stretchable) air above the puck, which mitigates the vacuum-effect. If the portafilter would sneeze, chances are good that a (slow) second pull wouldn't disrupt the puck.