Zach, a) there is no simple answer; and b) I am no expert.
Of the two major types of coffee plants, arabica and robusta, robusta beans contain a higher caffeine content than do arabica. (Source:
http://www.coffeeresearch.org/agriculture/coffeeplant.htm) Some roasters include robusta beans; some do not. Robusta has about twice as much caffeine as arabica therefore a coffee blend starting with a large amount of robusta will have more caffeine regardless of prep method. Many (but not all) supermarket brands of coffee have a fair amount of robusta mixed into the blend to keep production costs low.
In addition, some sources say that the darker the roast, the less caffeine it contains. Also, some sources say that the higher in altitude the coffee is grown, the less caffeine it contains. (Who knows?)
If you look at
this table, you'll get a VERY rough idea of how widely the caffeine content can vary in coffee/espresso. For that very reason, no one can do
absolutely definitive scientific research of the kind that will result in "x" -- a single number applicable to all. It, obviously, isn't a
one-size-fits-all thing . . .
Are you pulling a single or a double shot of espresso? Are you using 14 grams for your double? 15 grams? 18? All arabica, or does your blend contain some robusta? Are you using a blend, or a single-origin coffee? Is it a dark roast of a type favored in Southern Italy, or a lighter, Northern Italian roast?
And on and on and on . . .
I know: I've been of no help whatsoever.
Cheers,
Jason