by mcwresearch on Mon Sep 26, 2011 5:11 pm
Hopefully reviving an older discussion...
I think that if you remove the variable of the bean origin and green bean age, then yes, first crack should be a good indicator of a successful drying phase.
I say this because first crack is the result of pressure build-up within the bean and the pressure build-up is caused by vaporizing the water trapped inside the bean. If you imagine the changes going on inside the bean; as you heat it, a temperature gradient is formed within the bean. The outer edges are hotter than the core of the bean and as trapped water is vaporized, a vapor wall progresses towards the center, which causes increased pressure, which causes swelling, and eventually first crack, which is the sudden release of water vapor and CO2.
Therefore, if you have a good, robust first crack (again comparatively speaking, considering only the same lot origin and the same green bean age) then I would assume it indicates a good, robust drying period. In other words, I believe the two are tied closely together — but I'm not discounting the "ramp" mentioned by Martin, which is also an important factor to consider in first crack robustness.
Just last week I had a failed roast that went through the usual paces and superficially looked good, but ended up being under-roasted. Looking back at my data I can see that first crack was weak and it all started with an insufficient drying period.