Max, In terms of accurate measurement of ET, that is fairly straightforward. If the x* and y* are the real measurements, then the taken measurements x and y have to have y same scale and offset y = a + b*y* and x = a + b*x* If they don't, the basic heat transfer measurement doesn't work. This is easy to check with a sacrificial load of beans. Let the ET settle at 350 to 375 and hold it there. Now drop in the beans. They shpould asymptote at very nearly the same temperature on the BT probe, and the minute by minute rise should remain proportional to the intial temperature difference. If your ET and BT probes are obeying this relation well; the roaster is properly instrumented.
Ed, the simulation curves have the simplifying assumption of instantaneous heat transfer from ET to BT (there can be lots of storage and delay going from the heat input to ET, that is not part of the simulation). the basic premise of the simulation is that degrees rise per minute per 100 degree difference in ET and BT is a constant for a particular roaster at a particular bean charge and airflow setting.
This simplifying assumption has been very useful for me computing profiles on my air roaster. I can input my desired profile and get my stats program to spit out the ET ramp soak settings I need to 30 second accuracy.
I do not know how accurate it will be on the drum, but I have no reason to suspect it will be a lot worse. Storage effects in the transfer from ET to BT will show up as a difference in the gain rate when the ET is changing trajectory. This only happens at the end of the drying period and the heading into the first crack, so it should not be a major error source. I hate to introduce time dependency, since it turns the simple intuitive one line functions I'm using now into longer unintuitive programs with state variables and lots of places for bugs to hide.