Hi Nicholas,
I agree that the flow might be a bit different, but still it shouldn't affect the amount of water, don't you think? Looking at the passage of water through the wire plugged hole in macro mode would probably show chaos, but it's the surface that counts in my opinion. Of course I might be wrong here so feel free to jump in and smack me:)
I had two shots with the smaller jet, one with a 3s inline preinfusion (which bumps the PF mounted pressure gauge to 6bar even though the inline pressure is lower than 1bar - don't know why) and one with no inline preinfusion. The grind was a bit off, so the pours weren't perfect, but with 13.5g in a double basket I got two very nice, quite sweet espressos with no bitterness at all, although lacking a bit in the body department.
Still, my intuition appears to be backed by the variation between Dave's flow rate delta and your own, as I think that the jet area on each of your setups is pretty close.
I agree here as well, the difference is quite big.
Regards,
dsc.