IMHO:

UNLESS you are in financial problems (lost job, got divorced and stuff like that)
or
you lose interest in the coffee experience,
there is NO REASON for 'downgraditus'.


*or if even with expensive gear you still sukk at making coffee

Espin wrote:If I someone's coffee gear cost them more than the premium they would pay to drink coffee in a cafe for a year, I would feel that would be excessive.

....

So from that, if my home setup cost more than $3960, I'd be concerned. And, since I don't value my time (yet you might), your math may be different. It also doesn't factor in the quality degradation for trying to transport the coffee home, nor the cost of having to put on pants (and any other lifestyle effects you might choose to factor in).

I must say I appreciated your math as thoughtful yet humorous, and I appreciated your 'CYA' at the end even more; I just wanted to toss in a couple of other factors that are really big for some of us. First of all, why a single year? nice coffee gear typically lasts dramatically longer than that, so it would make more sense to factor in your maintenance cost on the machine over several years and factor that in.

Beyond that, I think the biggest factor is the simple lack of availability of decent cafés for lots of people. I've only got one that I know of that's even close to my standards, and I live in the 4th largest city in the country. 3rd Wave shops can be hard to find, and seem nonexistent in a lot of the country.

Another significant one is, are you into making espresso yourself? I find the experience and art of making my own espresso to be extremely satisfying; it extends far beyond the few dollars I save by making it myself rather than having a barista do it for me. It's difficult to imagine how I would quantify that, and I think that a lot of people in this forum are on a similar page--having an espresso setup is about a lot more than avoiding a trip to the cafe, which your accounting suggests.

I'm yet to see these "coffee machine maths" as any more than a potential way to justify your purchase to a reluctant spouse. Granted, in that vein, your numbers are much bigger (better, therefore?) than any others I've seen, and they resonate with me somewhat, since I rarely go to cafés. When I do, it's good ones, and I tend to spend a lot ($8 ticket often) and tip well, like you. On the other hand, I wouldn't do that if I went every day. ~$4000 in a year is doable, but a pretty insane amount to spend at a café.

Which reminds me, one more factor in big machine purchases--if you don't trash your toys, they hold their value really well. A lot better than a few hundred consumed cups of coffee, that's for sure...

I would never consider trading my machine in. I don't drink milk drinks, but that doesn't figure into it. I don't tweak temperature or pressure much, either. I just don't have to spend as much ritual as I did with a hx to get consistent, really good shots. It removes a great deal of "friction" from the experience of making coffee, freeing me up to pay attention to what I'm doing.

The differences between my Synesso & my prior Isomac are meaningful & extend beyond what comes out of the portafilter. On separate occasions my Isomac flooded my kitchen & electrocuted me- it was a carelessly designed, cheaply engineered piece of garbage that I consider unsafe to have running unattended, certainly with a 2-year-old in my home. Commercial machines are designed, tested, & certified to a higher standard of safety (UL, NSF, etc)

I have an expensive coffee machine, but I live in a 850 s.f. house, drive an 18 year old p.o.s. car & don't have a tv, cable, etc. If I'm going to invest the money & square footage for an espresso machine at all I want one that is a real pleasure to own & use.

shadowfax wrote:Beyond that, I think the biggest factor is the simple lack of availability of decent cafés for lots of people. I've only got one that I know of that's even close to my standards, and I live in the 4th largest city in the country. 3rd Wave shops can be hard to find, and seem nonexistent in a lot of the country.

That's factored in. If you have to drive 75 miles (3 towns over?) for a decent coffee, and you want 1 coffee a day, that means that coffee costs $36 more than the menu price. (75 miles, times two, times 24 cents/mile). Add in 3 hours of your time to go pick it up. What your quality standards may adjust this slightly, but I don't think that compromising your quality standards is a reasonable approach.

shadowfax wrote:Another significant one is, are you into making espresso yourself? I find the experience and art of making my own espresso to be extremely satisfying; it extends far beyond the few dollars I save by making it myself rather than having a barista do it for me. It's difficult to imagine how I would quantify that, and I think that a lot of people in this forum are on a similar page--having an espresso setup is about a lot more than avoiding a trip to the cafe, which your accounting suggests.

If it's something you want to do, apply a negative value for your time - you're willing to pay to spend your time in this way.

shadowfax wrote:I'm yet to see these "coffee machine maths" as any more than a potential way to justify your purchase to a reluctant spouse. Granted, in that vein, your numbers are much bigger (better, therefore?) than any others I've seen, and they resonate with me somewhat, since I rarely go to cafés. When I do, it's good ones, and I tend to spend a lot ($8 ticket often) and tip well, like you. On the other hand, I wouldn't do that if I went every day. ~$4000 in a year is doable, but a pretty insane amount to spend at a café.

$4000 isn't all the cost at the cafe, there are also travel costs involved, plus the value of your time to go get a coffee. I agree, doing this kind of math is stupid (and fun), and serves no real purpose - but if you find that your setup costs more than the incremental cost to sit in a cafe for a year, it's probably a good indicator that you're obsessed.

I justify my very meager setup and all the time I've put in on it every morning when I make coffee, and she smiles and says it's good. When I suggest that maybe something that textures the milk better would be helpful, she doesn't scoff and say I'm trying to waste more money - she gets giddy at the idea of a better coffee in the morning.

shadowfax wrote:Which reminds me, one more factor in big machine purchases--if you don't trash your toys, they hold their value really well. A lot better than a few hundred consumed cups of coffee, that's for sure...

Yes, (y)our toys will have resale value - but you can't count on them holding all of their value indefinitely, nor on there being an interested buyer when (if) you need to sell it. The AI thermal controllers which will be all rage in six years won't retrofit properly onto some of the current models, so they just won't be as desirable as they are now, and the current generation of mechanical grinders just don't produce the same consistency and allow for the same expression that the ultrasonic powderers (available in about 17 years) will.

As far as $4000 (Give or take 1%) goes, that means I can't quite justify a Synesso and Super Caimano for the house, but an Alex Duetto and a Vario or a Mazzer Mini are probably reasonable... and that would seem like a pretty decent threshold between "good coffee" and "obsession", yes?

70 miles + 15 minute walk sounds like it should be trivial to justify a home setup, because it just takes too long to get a good coffee. (140 mile round trip, plus a half hour of your time walking, plus your 3 hour travel time to get there and back, plus parking fees...)

This gets balanced out by another factor - how often do you want a coffee? Daily?

Let's assume that you'd like a coffee every morning. Let's assume that the cafe that's 70 miles and 3.5 hours away charges $3.75 for your beverage, and you'll be a swell guy and just hand over a $5 for it.

$38.60 per coffee, plus 3.5 hours of your time. Let's say your time is worth $10/hour (which it's not - it's worth far more than that). $73.60 for a morning cuppa.

7 days a week, 50 weeks a year... you're insane if your home setup is more than $25,760.

Heck, for that, you can just about hire your own barista part time to run your Synesso.

I'd say you're justified to factor in "lifestyle adjustment costs" as well, for having to get up at 4.30a every day to drive to get your coffee on the way to work.


It sounds like there's a market for a quality coffeeshop in your hometown, too.

Endo wrote:Knowing what I know now, I would stop at a Alexia/PID and a Baratza Vario combo. Small footprint. No overkill. Great taste. Half the price.

My milk drinks would slow down but heck.... the guests are happy with drip as long as it's topped with whipped cream.

Endo,

Keeping in mind my setup of 20+ years was a Gaggia Coffee paired with a Gaggia MDF grinder, I have to say that I would still (possibly) be happy with that IF I hadn't stumbled upon this site (and CG). Without that, I (probably) never would have gone into "third wave" cafés and realized how poor the quality of my espresso at home truly was. After all, I never liked Starbucks; I did like Peet's; and my coffee was at least as good as what I was getting there. But one taste of the espresso made at cafés like Vivace, Verve, Blue Bottle, Victrola, Flying Goat, and others made me see the light. So I am positive I would have upgraded from that setup.

My espresso machine ownership to date has been as follows:

• La Pavoni Europiccola lever;
• Gaggia Coffee semi-auto;
• Ala di Vittoria La Valentina auto;
• Olympia Cafferex semi-auto;
• Arrarex Caravel lever;
• Elektra "Sixties" T1 auto.

I still own the last four, and should sell two. I know the Caravel will eventually go, because I just don't use it enough, and I honestly cannot make up my mind between keeping the La Val or the Cafferex. But I know I won't downgrade from my T1, nor do I have any desire to upgrade . . .

My grinder ownership to date has been as follows:

• Krups blade grinder;
• Gaggia MDF;
• Mazzer Mini;
• Cimbali Max Hybrid;
• Nuova Simonelli MCF;
• La Pavoni PA;
• Mahlkönig K30 Vario.

Again, I still own the last four. The MCF will eventually go. I will continue to use the Cimbali in my office and the Mahlkönig at home. I use the PA for making French press when I travel. But I admit there is not a huge jump in quality in the cup between the Cimbali and the Mahlkönig -- certainly not like there was when I upgraded to the Cimbali from the Mazzer. Still, I wouldn't want to give up the speed, the quiet, and the convenience of the Mahlkönig . . .

Je suis contenu.

Cheers,
Jason

P.S. My guests would never be content with drip -- with or withour the whipped cream!

William,

Espin wrote:Yes, (y)our toys will have resale value - but you can't count on them holding all of their value indefinitely, nor on there being an interested buyer when (if) you need to sell it. The AI thermal controllers which will be all rage in six years won't retrofit properly onto some of the current models, so they just won't be as desirable as they are now, and the current generation of mechanical grinders just don't produce the same consistency and allow for the same expression that the ultrasonic powderers (available in about 17 years) will.

All that is true, and there will be some that will lust after those AI thermal controllers, or the ultrasonic grinders. There are also, however, those who won't. I might "lust" but I probably wouldn't "jump."

As far as resale value is concerned, that's only important if you intend on reselling them -- if and when you upgrade. Indeed, if you are replacing a worn-out machine after years of valuable service, resale value is less of a concern. If you're like me, I run my cars into the ground. A Toyota with 325,000 "original owner" miles on it (or -- go ahead and laugh! -- a Renault R5 GTL* with 274,000 "original owner" miles) isn't worth much at trade-in time.

Let's say, just for the sake of discussion, that my coffee costs $18.50/lb. deliverd. One pound equals 454 grams. I pull mostly doubles at 14.0-14.5 grams. Let's say I get 30 doubles per pound (30 doubles * 14.5 grams = 435 grams, and the rest spills on the ground). My coffee cost per drink is thus 62¢, regardless of whether I'm making an espresso, a cappuccino, or a latte. Let's say that I use eight ounces of milk (before steaming) in a latte. My milk cost is then approximately 44¢ per latte. So an espresso costs me (in raw material) 62¢, and a latte costs me $1.06.

I pull roughly three espressos (that's American English for "espressi") and two lattes at home Monday through Friday, maybe five and three on weekend days. Raw material costs per year: $1,321.84 in coffee; $366.08 in milk. Total: $1,687.92.

Since I don't have a "kill-o-watt" device, I am honestly not sure how to measure my cost-of-operation in terms of the electricity needed to run the espresso machine and grinder. Nor do I know how to calculate my cost of water, or the cost(s) of cleaners, brushes, and other "disposables" I go through in operating my machine. I know what the tamper, knockbox, and other "incidental" devices cost me. They don't really wear out, do they? OK, the rubber covering the knockout bar will eventually, I suppose, but I got an extra one when I bought it and I still haven't needed to use it.

The grinder and the machine itself will last a lot longer than one year, indeed a lot longer than five years. (Yes, the burrs may need replacing, but the machinery itself should last at least that long. Heck, one of my espresso machines is working perfectly at 20 years of age; another is working perfectly at 15 or 16; and my brother-in-law is using my old Gaggia MDF that must be close to 25 years old!)

So if we take $4,000 as the cost of espresso machine and grinder . . .

The original Peet's Coffee & Tea is 1.65 miles from my house. Steeply downhill -- I can actually coast about 3/4 of the trip -- but it's steeply UPhill going back . . . like less than 5 MPG steep. Be that as it may, were I to buy my daily drinks at Peet's, let's say that would require two round trips per weekday. (Weekends would be double that.) That's 3.3 miles at 24¢/mi., or 79¢ per trip, or $739.44 per year.

A double espresso is $2.20 and a latte is $2.85 at Peet's. Total cost of drinks per year: $5,231.20.

Drinks + mileage = $5,970.64
Machine + Grinder + Raw Materials = $5,687.92. (Does not include electricity, water, and other "incidentals.")

Seems to me that I'm roughly "even" after 12 months. The costs for raw materials, electricity, water, etc. continue year-in, year-out. However, the costs for equipment (including tampers, kockboxes, etc.) do not, so I'll will certainly be ahead in my second year, and from then on . . .

What am I missing?

Cheers,
Jason

* aka "Le Car," though they didn't call them that in the States until the year after I bought mine.

I have discussions of a similar vein with my girlfriend about language. She's quite fluent in Spanish and wants go teach in Spain to become "100%" fluent. I don't see a need to go over 80% fluency, as that lets me communicate everything I want to communicate and I can acquire that level of function in a very short period of time. It becomes exponentially harder to move closer to 100% after that.

So, if you can get 80% of the absolute, no questions asked, beyond compare best flavor for a fraction of the cost to achieve that 100%, would you? For me, there's no question; more money for amazing coffee. I also have a lot of hobbies that I merely want to be quite good in.

So, yes, I occasionally have downgraditus, because moving from Oscar to Silvia w/PID is seen as such.

Stanner wrote:So, if you can get 80% of the absolute, no questions asked, beyond compare best flavor for a fraction of the cost to achieve that 100%, would you?

Heck.. forget 80%. In a review on this website, the Alexia scored 9.0 out of 10.0 for espresso taste (nothing was higher I believe).

It costs around $1100 ($1350 w/PID).

Any extra money after this does not buy any improvement in taste.....just extra steaming convenience (or a bigger, shinier toy).

So rather than spreadsheet justifications.....I think I'll just repeat Mike's comment (beautiful in its honesty and brevity):

michaelbenis wrote:There's not doubt that what I do with coffee is over the top.

But what can I say? I'm having a whale of a time