Marshall wrote:Advantages of the smaller diameter basket:
1. With a reasonably deep tamper base, it is nearly impossible to do a tamp that isn't level.
2. Shots are more predictable with a higher percentage of "good" to "very good" shots.
With one notable exception

, I tend to agree with Marshall most of the time. But I'm going to take issue with this post.
First, let me assure you that it is indeed possible to to perform a non-level tamp in a smaller diameter basket (in my case, 53mm Spaziale double basket, Bumper tamp with nice thick base). Maybe I'm just talented.

Second, the jury is still out on optimal basket size and shape. Answering this question will require a careful study performed on two otherwise-identical machines, one with a 58mm grouphead and the other with a smaller (53-54mm?) grouphead. I have not noticed any increase in predictability with a smaller diameter basket, but there are many other factors at play in my system (comparing 58mm HX to 53mm DB to 51mm manual lever).
My WAG: the 58mm grouphead standard has evolved for a reason, just like the near-universal recommendation of 9 bars brew pressure in pump machines. It's probably near optimal for the majority of current espresso machine designs.