I have little experience compared to most people on this board but I do have the experience of being a recent newcomer to the world of yummy espresso, so here is my opinion based on my experience.
First, get the Vario. It will be well worth it and you won't need to upgrade for a long time, maybe never.
If you have a problem, there is a large and growing user base and Baratza is very responsive. What everyone has been saying on here is absolutely right: the grinder should come first, and the Vario is a great choice. (I've had one for about a month and love it.)
With what's left, get the machine you can. If you're a bit short, save up for a little while and use fresh coffee and your Vario to make coffee with an aeropress, french press, or some other way. (This isn't my advice, it's what the experienced members are saying and if I were to start again on a budget, that is what I'd do.)
Last but definitely not least,
pick a supplier who will work with you. If you're spending this amount of money you will want someone to go to if you have questions or problems. Places I have dealt with:
- Chris Coffee Service. My last 4-5 purchases were from them and I will make more. Their service is exceptional. If they aren't the ones who will help you they'll tell you who will. The day after I got my Duetto I had an issue with the PID. It was a Saturday and they were closed, but I called and left a message anyway. The head of customer service called me within the hour and we discussed the solution I came up with as well as a future replacement for the PID, which I installed this weekend.
- 1st-Line Equipment. I bought my first setup from them. Jim Piccinich emailed (or called me?) early on and patiently helped me fix some problems in using the equipment. Soon after that I realized everything he said was written in the instructions they gave me with the machine. I did follow those instructions at first but as time went by I started experimenting and forgot about them. He could have said RTFM but he never did. I would shop with them again.
- Whole Latte Love. When I called Tech support with Brewtus-III issues I found the response dubious. When I had to send it back the instructions on draining the boilers were inadequate; even a newbie like me knew that. After I called tech support for clarification their instructions were incomplete. I called that night and left a message but they never got back to me. I had to figure it out myself. They have never responded to an email. Customer service, while very polite, has lied to me on multiple occasions. Don't be lured by free "gifts" and discounts. Nothing is free. Heck, the "free" coffee they gave me with the Brewtus (which they later charged me for what I couldn't return) was more stale than the stuff you get in grocery store bins; I'm not exaggerating. Others may have had better experience with them but those have been mine. I will not be purchasing from them again.
Call Chris's place or 1st-Line. They will help you make a decision based on your needs and you may even get a discount.
Hope this helps.