First of all, Steve, welcome to HB.
Secondly, I'm a bit puzzled by your post, and by the selection of
these specific machines. In other words, although you cite some specific pros and cons, you do not explain why you've narrowed it down to these four specific machines over all others. You worry about
overkill ("uninsulated and very large boiler may be (even more) overkill for my level of use"), although a) I cannot fathom how a large boiler in and of itself equals overkill, and b) the boiler is easy to insulate. And this means that some of your "cons" aren't really cons at all . . .
ANY of the four specific machines you mention will perform excellently in your home for years to come. Indeed, any of a dozen (or two or three) machines I could name will perform excellently in your home for years to come. There is, however, a certain commonality that ties all four of these machines together, and that is a certain lack of QPR ("Quality Price Ratio"), meaning that none of these really provide a great "bang for the buck," if you will.
As an aside, let me point out what may be obvious: Ken Fox owns several (three?) Cimbali Junior DT/1's; I own an Elektra Sixties T1. I cannot speak for Ken, but I do know he has had them for a while and did not pay anything close to the current retail price. The same is true for my Elektra; the street price took a considerable hike since I bought mine.
What I will tell you is that I don't see any substantial improvement in the cup by moving from an HX machine to a DB machine. (The Elektra, too, is an HX model, but that doesn't seem to be listed as a "con" in the same way you listed it with the Cimbali.) After long discussions on this site, I have come to the conclusion that a DB is more convenient for a newbie with limited experience. Having a PID controller re-emphasizes this point. But I am equally convinced there is no substantive difference in the cup, and each class of machine, HX and DB, has its advantages and disadvantages. If you are seriously into this little hobby of ours, you can easily achieve great espresso with either type of machine.
What you do
not discuss at all is an upgrade to your grinder and, although you do not say with any specificity the price model of Pavoni grinder you have, I shall presume that an upgrade to your grinder
is essential. Thus, keep in mind the less you spend on the machine itself, the more you have to spend on the grinder. And while the 4M's of Espresso treat all four equally, it's also been frequently said that it's the grinder that makes the espresso, while the machine is just a hot water delivery system.
In fact, many of us have two grinders -- a primary grinder for our "main" coffee,and a secondary grinder for decaf or special roasts.
Re-read Ken's post. I completely agree with Ken when he says,
Ken Fox wrote:If I were looking right now and had your list of candidates, I'd try to find out when Cimbali will be coming out with their new single group machine. I don't know what they will call it, whether they will retain the name "Jr.," which is why I didn't call it that.
Since you like the basic "industrial" look of the Cimbali, and since Cimbalis are generally regarded as extremely rugged and durable machines, I'd give their new model serious consideration if it was close to being released. Or, if you could get a really good deal on the current model, then I'd consider that, What I'd not do is pay $3K for the current model at this time.
What I will add is that my Elektra has completely eliminated any serious desire to upgrade whatsoever. The same is true for my grinders. I "know" (as best as anyone can actually know these things) that I won't be upgrading anytime in the short or medium term.
From left to right: Mahlkönig K30 Vario grinder, Cafelat tamper stand and tamper, Elektra T1 espresso machine, Baratza Vario grinder, Cafelat (neé Bumper) Classic knockbox.There are any number of machines in the <$3,000 range that can be plumbed directly into the water supply (and out through the drainage system). There are any number of
great grinders in and around the $1,000-$2,000 mark that will serve you exceeding well for a very long time, and that doesn't include the sub-$500 Baratza Vario that performs well above its price tag.
One final
generalized thought . . .
Kokal wrote:My favorite drink is normally a double with about an ounce of steamed half-n-half. AM and mid-afternoon drinks for me, plus whatever my wife and kid wants (normally lattes).
Keep in mind that your coffee consumption
will increase with the new machine. It always does.
There are lots of
specific recommendations I could make, but from among the four specific machines you cite, I, too, would recommend them in reverse price order, that is the least expensive one (the Cimbali) first and move on down from there . . .
Cheers,
Jason